• To restore an ecosystem (objective) through revegetation (action) using volunteers (resource).

• To overturn the elected government of Ukraine (objective) through an armed invasion (action) using 140,000 troops amassed on the Ukrainian border (resource).

• To protect the ozone layer (objective) through the phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone depleting chemicals (action) using the legislative and regulatory power of 197 governments (resource).

• Is a strategic planning tool used in different phases of project design (esp. proposal and reporting phases)
• Common used in donor funded projects
• A logframe will outline the project’s goals (objective), expected outcomes, activities, and indicators (which measure their success)
• And sometimes: assumptions, deliverables (outputs), and data sources
• Often the logic is revealed using IF and THEN deduction
• The diagram of this logic = Theory of Change
• Funders use different terminology

• no agreed terminology
• people within the same organisation interpret it differently
• too often get applied as a prescription (instead of a guideline)
• assumes links are linear, perfect knowledge, and there are no hidden feedback loops
• they often get over engineered and can lead to inane amounts of monitoring
• don’t incorporate data appropriately
• often donors focus on deliverables rather than outcomes
• they are often a time consuming headache

• They force projects to have a logic to their strategy
• Prevent magical thinking
• Clear understanding of what is trying to be accomplished and how success will be measured

• More important than theory are the implicit assumptions which will underpin the strategy

• Are our assumptions reasonable?
• What does it mean if they are wrong?
• If they are wrong do we abandon an action?
• For this reason logframes and theory-of-change should only be used as a guide never as a prescription.

• Generally going to be simple
• Metric of inventory, capacity or funds remaining e.g. medical supplies, number of clinic staff, $$ remaining
• Your financial system: budget tracking

Can be simple or complex:

• Metric of what was achieved e.g. 32% reduction in maternal mortality or
• Statistical model testing whether or not the intervention was effective (and determining the magnitude of the effect associated with the intervention)
  • e.g. there was no difference in mortality between control and intervention communities or
  • e.g. maybe true mortality only improved by 24% compared to the controls

• What does it mean if you honestly reveal your project didn’t succeed?
• What does it mean if your target wasn’t reached (and was perhaps never obtainable)?

• Simple metric of progress:
  • Objective: increase number of students attending school e.g. % of eligible population <15 years old enrolled in school

• Or more complex:
  • Objective: community happiness e.g. Before-After changes in a happiness index

• Objectives can be practical or aspirational

Complex and only can be undertaken by high capacity organisations

• Which factors in our assumptions affected the outcome?
  • e.g. was exposure to the radio campaign a factor in attendance at the clinics
• Important because it refines how we do similar projects in future

• Strategies built around resources that organisations don’t have and can’t reasonably acquire
• Expectation of fast timelines for ecosystem and behavioural change
• Treatment of the implementer: are they being treated as partner or a contractor?
• What happens when the assumptions are wrong? You need avenues for adaptation
• Most field organisations are fighting for their financial survival
• Where is the incentive for honesty?
• Success is always relative to the counterfactual

• A strategy is simply the allocation of finite resources to actions in order to achieve an objective
• Budgets, logframes, and theory of change attempt capture the strategy
• There is no definitive approach
• Data can, in different ways, help us understand the status of our strategy and whether it is working